In partnership with the University of Hawai‘i, the Pacific RISA team investigated climate-induced migration in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) and its potential impact on Hawai‘i. The estimated population of the RMI is around 53,167 (United Nations Population Division, 2018), and more than half of residents live on the capital atoll of Majuro. Recent census data shows that population growth is slowing, and populations of the outer islands have almost all decreased since 1999. The increasing dominance of urban centers within the RMI is important as both an indicator of internal migration and a primary place of departure, including to the United States. The number of Marshallese currently residing in the U.S. is roughly 30,000, and has risen rapidly over the past decades.
There is scientific consensus that global air and water temperatures in the RMI will increase in the future, sea levels will rise due to thermal expansion and glacier melting, oceans will absorb more carbon dioxide causing acidification (IPCC AR5, 2014), and extreme weather events are expected to become more intense (IPCC, 2012). Climate change also has the potential to reduce the level of ecosystem services by causing environmental degradation, especially in atoll environments (Staudinger et al., 2012; Stege, 2018). Persistent climatic shocks and El Niño events are already affecting livelihoods in the RMI. Rising sea levels mean that the RMI’s coastal areas are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, wave inundation, erosion from storms, shifts in precipitation and resulting drought, surface temperature increases, hurricanes, and tsunamis, as well as the associated impacts on freshwater supply and habitable land (Keener at al., 2012; Marra et al., 2017). Going forward, the Marshall Islands will see increased temperatures, increased heat stress days, and decreased annual rainfall.
This study aimed to clarify the extent to which Marshallese people are already migrating because of climate change, and the role affected ecosystem services play in their migration decisions. The research also aimed to better understand the effects of this migration on migrants themselves, among communities in the RMI (in the capital of Majuro, and on Mejit and Maleolap), and in destination states (Hawai‘i, Oregon, and Washington). Finally, the research analyzed shared views found within Marshallese perceptions on these subjects, which allows for a more fulsome assessment of the current state of well-being for Marshallese migrants, contributes to a more informed discussion regarding whether migration is a successful adaptation strategy, and provides context for assessing which legal, economic, and social services the Marshallese may need and desire in coming years. Visit the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project (MICMP) page to learn more and read the final reports.
Summary for Policymakers
References
U.S. Census Bureau. (2012.) The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Population: 2010. (U.S. Census Brief No. C2010BR-12.) Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Census Bureau.
Donna Davis (2014), Modeling Scenarios of Sea-level Rise and Human Migration: Rita Village, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, University of Arkansas.
Thomas, A. (2014). Protecting people displaced by weather-related disasters and climate change: experience from the field. Vermont Journal of Environmental Law, 15: 803-808. Retrieved from http://vjel.vermontlaw.edu/files/2014/06/Thomas_forprint.pdf.
Pacific RISA collaborated with the Marshall Islands Ministry of Health and Human Services, the NOAA, and the University of Hawai’i Sea Level Center on climate change, health, and migration research. The aim of the project was to improve climate information delivery to the health sector in the RMI and to inform health service providers in Hawai’i about migration, health, and climate change in the Pacific Islands region. This work is affiliated with the Pacific RISA’s Climate-Induced Migration projectand was funded by NOAA’s International Research and Applications Project.
The island of Majuro, as seen from United Airlines flight 154, the “Island Hopper”. Credit: MikeRTW
The health sector in RMI is particularly influenced by sub-seasonal and seasonal changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme events, as well as longer-term impacts such as sea-level rise and ocean acidification. With a population spread across two million square kilometers, the healthcare system may be unprepared to cope with these changes. Recent work by Pacific RISA found that 25–45 percent of households on three islands have experienced health-related impacts due to climate stress over the past five years (see below). As communities adapt, migration has also increased. More than three-quarters of Marshall Islanders now live in the urban centers of Majuro and Kwajalein. More than 25,000 Marshallese currently live in the US—an increase of 400 percent since 2000. About 10,000 Marshallese live in the state of Hawai’i, where many lack access to healthcare, are affected by unique diseases, require translation services, and may face discrimination within the system. As this population increases, so does the health sector’s need for information about them.
Percent of surveyed households affected by climate-related stressors in the last five years
The goals of this project were to:
Identify and provide climate information and services to the Marshall Islands health sector. This was achieved through interviews and a workshop involving healthcare professionals, administrators, and policy makers in the RMI based on the Pacific Islands Climate Services Dialogs.
Analyze survey data from the RMI (sending location) households and US (receiving location) households to extract the health indicators of migration.
Improve partnerships to adapt to climate impacts and protect against risks to human health and the effects of climate-induced migration.
Key Project Activities
Survey Data Analysis
Data from a Marshall Islands household survey were analyzed and two publications (see Resources, below) were produced on the findings. These publications summarized information from 199 households about their past migrations, health outcomes, and expectations to migrate in the future. Using hierarchical clustering analysis and logistic regression, we identified groups among those surveyed with significantly different profiles of vulnerability, health outcomes, and migration agency. In particular, we found that climate change and its impacts were not experienced evenly across the population, with differing associated health and migration outcomes. Furthermore, migration within and beyond the RMI may be related to a changing climate but is also a complex composite of many factors. Read the full report here. Publications associated with this project have informed the forthcoming Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment report for the RMI and Fifth National Climate Assessment, as well as the Marshall Islands National Adaptation Plan.
A conceptual framework of the nexus between climate change, health, and migration in Pacific Islands. From Krzesni and Brewington 2022.
Stakeholder Engagement and Training
One outcome of stakeholder engagement through this project was increased and improved use of climate information, such as seasonal forecasting tools and future projection assessment products. The University of Hawaiʻi Sea Level Center provided training on the use of their seasonal sea level forecasting product and collaborated on CMIP6-based climate assessments. These activities were requested by the RMI National Disaster Management Office and the National Weather Service, and were delivered at the virtual Pacific Islands Climate Change Forum in April 2022.
First National Climate Change and Health Dialogue for the Marshall Islands
On 30–31 January 2020, the First National Climate Change and Health Dialogue was held in Majuro, RMI. Organized by Pacific RISA staff and the RMI Ministry of Health and Human Services, the two-day meeting was held in collaboration with the RMI Office of Environment, Planning, Policy, and Coordination (which has since been renamed the Climate Change Directorate), the World Health Organization, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The dialogue was attended by RMI President-Elect David Kabua, outgoing President Hilda Heine, the Minister of Health and Human Services Bruce Bilimon, the Secretary of the Ministry of Health and Human Services Jack Neidenthal, the Chief Secretary of the Office of Environmental Planning and Policy Coordination Clarence Samuel, and representatives of other organizations, including the Ministry Of Natural Resources and Commerce, the Marshall Islands Red Cross Society, the Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority, the RMI Ministry of Finance, the College of the Marshall Islands, the Marshall Islands Council of Non-Governmental Organizations, the International Organization for Migration, the RMI National Disaster Management Office, the Ministry of Culture and Internal Affairs, several high school classes, and other interested individuals. ReliefWeb’s press release on the dialogue can be found here.
This two-day meeting was based on the Climate Services Dialogues model. Created by the Pacific Regional Climate Services Director for NOAA (and East-West Center Adjunct Senior Fellow) Dr. John Marra, Climate Services Dialogues are a participant-driven group process designed to be appropriate for Pacific cultures. Dialogues solicit the relevant experiences and knowledge of meeting participants to create accessible, understandable “climate stories” meant to share key messages and best practices. Participants at the 1st National Climate Change and Health Dialogue shared their experiences related to climate and health, created common timelines of events, and discussed past successes and failures in small groups. The work conducted at these meetings, guided by Pacific RISA staff, was used to create the climate and health stories that are a key component of this project.
Participants at RMI’s 1st national Climate Change and Health Dialogue, January 30-31, 2020 in Majuro, Marshall Islands
Resources
Final Project Report on the intersection of climate change, health, and migration in the RMI
Policy briefing on climate-induced migration and the Compact of Free Association: limitations and opportunities
Fact sheet on Marshallese perspectives about migration in the context of climate change
The Pacific Islands Climate Storybookcontaining “climate stories” outputs from climate services dialogs conducted by NOAA and the US Agency for International Development (USAID)
A resource booklet created by University of Hawaii School of Public Health containing information about the healthcare options available to Marshallese residents in Hawaii and their family members
Our Vision
Pacific Island communities that are resilient to climate impacts and using climate information to manage risks.
Climate and Migration
Climate-Induced Migration
In partnership with the University of Hawai‘i, the Pacific RISA team investigated climate-induced migration in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) and its potential impact on Hawai‘i. The estimated population of the RMI is around 53,167 (United Nations Population Division, 2018), and more than half of residents live on the capital atoll of Majuro. Recent census data shows that population growth is slowing, and populations of the outer islands have almost all decreased since 1999. The increasing dominance of urban centers within the RMI is important as both an indicator of internal migration and a primary place of departure, including to the United States. The number of Marshallese currently residing in the U.S. is roughly 30,000, and has risen rapidly over the past decades.
There is scientific consensus that global air and water temperatures in the RMI will increase in the future, sea levels will rise due to thermal expansion and glacier melting, oceans will absorb more carbon dioxide causing acidification (IPCC AR5, 2014), and extreme weather events are expected to become more intense (IPCC, 2012). Climate change also has the potential to reduce the level of ecosystem services by causing environmental degradation, especially in atoll environments (Staudinger et al., 2012; Stege, 2018). Persistent climatic shocks and El Niño events are already affecting livelihoods in the RMI. Rising sea levels mean that the RMI’s coastal areas are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, wave inundation, erosion from storms, shifts in precipitation and resulting drought, surface temperature increases, hurricanes, and tsunamis, as well as the associated impacts on freshwater supply and habitable land (Keener at al., 2012; Marra et al., 2017). Going forward, the Marshall Islands will see increased temperatures, increased heat stress days, and decreased annual rainfall.
References
Climate Change, Health, and Migration
Pacific RISA collaborated with the Marshall Islands Ministry of Health and Human Services, the NOAA, and the University of Hawai’i Sea Level Center on climate change, health, and migration research. The aim of the project was to improve climate information delivery to the health sector in the RMI and to inform health service providers in Hawai’i about migration, health, and climate change in the Pacific Islands region. This work is affiliated with the Pacific RISA’s Climate-Induced Migration project and was funded by NOAA’s International Research and Applications Project.
The health sector in RMI is particularly influenced by sub-seasonal and seasonal changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme events, as well as longer-term impacts such as sea-level rise and ocean acidification. With a population spread across two million square kilometers, the healthcare system may be unprepared to cope with these changes. Recent work by Pacific RISA found that 25–45 percent of households on three islands have experienced health-related impacts due to climate stress over the past five years (see below). As communities adapt, migration has also increased. More than three-quarters of Marshall Islanders now live in the urban centers of Majuro and Kwajalein. More than 25,000 Marshallese currently live in the US—an increase of 400 percent since 2000. About 10,000 Marshallese live in the state of Hawai’i, where many lack access to healthcare, are affected by unique diseases, require translation services, and may face discrimination within the system. As this population increases, so does the health sector’s need for information about them.
The goals of this project were to:
Key Project Activities
Survey Data Analysis
Data from a Marshall Islands household survey were analyzed and two publications (see Resources, below) were produced on the findings. These publications summarized information from 199 households about their past migrations, health outcomes, and expectations to migrate in the future. Using hierarchical clustering analysis and logistic regression, we identified groups among those surveyed with significantly different profiles of vulnerability, health outcomes, and migration agency. In particular, we found that climate change and its impacts were not experienced evenly across the population, with differing associated health and migration outcomes. Furthermore, migration within and beyond the RMI may be related to a changing climate but is also a complex composite of many factors. Read the full report here. Publications associated with this project have informed the forthcoming Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment report for the RMI and Fifth National Climate Assessment, as well as the Marshall Islands National Adaptation Plan.
Stakeholder Engagement and Training
One outcome of stakeholder engagement through this project was increased and improved use of climate information, such as seasonal forecasting tools and future projection assessment products. The University of Hawaiʻi Sea Level Center provided training on the use of their seasonal sea level forecasting product and collaborated on CMIP6-based climate assessments. These activities were requested by the RMI National Disaster Management Office and the National Weather Service, and were delivered at the virtual Pacific Islands Climate Change Forum in April 2022.
First National Climate Change and Health Dialogue for the Marshall Islands
On 30–31 January 2020, the First National Climate Change and Health Dialogue was held in Majuro, RMI. Organized by Pacific RISA staff and the RMI Ministry of Health and Human Services, the two-day meeting was held in collaboration with the RMI Office of Environment, Planning, Policy, and Coordination (which has since been renamed the Climate Change Directorate), the World Health Organization, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The dialogue was attended by RMI President-Elect David Kabua, outgoing President Hilda Heine, the Minister of Health and Human Services Bruce Bilimon, the Secretary of the Ministry of Health and Human Services Jack Neidenthal, the Chief Secretary of the Office of Environmental Planning and Policy Coordination Clarence Samuel, and representatives of other organizations, including the Ministry Of Natural Resources and Commerce, the Marshall Islands Red Cross Society, the Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority, the RMI Ministry of Finance, the College of the Marshall Islands, the Marshall Islands Council of Non-Governmental Organizations, the International Organization for Migration, the RMI National Disaster Management Office, the Ministry of Culture and Internal Affairs, several high school classes, and other interested individuals. ReliefWeb’s press release on the dialogue can be found here.
This two-day meeting was based on the Climate Services Dialogues model. Created by the Pacific Regional Climate Services Director for NOAA (and East-West Center Adjunct Senior Fellow) Dr. John Marra, Climate Services Dialogues are a participant-driven group process designed to be appropriate for Pacific cultures. Dialogues solicit the relevant experiences and knowledge of meeting participants to create accessible, understandable “climate stories” meant to share key messages and best practices. Participants at the 1st National Climate Change and Health Dialogue shared their experiences related to climate and health, created common timelines of events, and discussed past successes and failures in small groups. The work conducted at these meetings, guided by Pacific RISA staff, was used to create the climate and health stories that are a key component of this project.
Resources
Our Vision
Pacific Island communities that are resilient to climate impacts and using climate information to manage risks.
Follow Pacific RISA
Archives