Consensus, Urgency, and the Cost Question: What Hawaiʻi Residents Think About Sea Level Rise

By Colin Moore, Ketty Loeb, Victoria Keener, and Zena Grecni

Hawaiʻi is among the most vulnerable places in the United States to sea level rise. Nearly all residents live near the coast, where housing, transportation networks, tourism infrastructure, and cultural sites are concentrated. Chronic flooding and beach erosion are already visible in many communities, and long-term projections point to steadily rising risks over the coming decades.

Until recently, however, there has been little systematic evidence on how residents view this threat or what kinds of policy responses they are prepared to support. To address this gap, an interdisciplinary team from Pacific RISA, UHERO, and the UH Institute for Sustainability and Resilience conducted Hawai‘i’s first statewide, representative survey of public attitudes toward sea level rise (SLR) in summer 2025, gathering responses from 1,314 adults across all four counties. The results provide a baseline picture of public beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences at a critical moment for coastal planning in the state.  Detailed findings are presented in the full report, Public Views on Sea Level Rise in Hawaiʻi: Results from a Statewide Survey.

Three themes stand out:

• unusually broad agreement that sea level rise is happening,
• a strong sense of urgency about its impacts, and
• uncertainty about how long-term adaptation should be financed.

Taken together, these findings indicate that Hawaiʻi’s primary challenge lies not in public awareness, but in governance and the financing of long-term adaptation.

Key findings

• 89 percent of residents believe sea level rise is happening.
• Majorities of Democrats (97 percent), Independents (90 percent), and Republicans (80 percent) agree.
• 49 percent say SLR is already affecting people in Hawaiʻi; 82 percent expect impacts within 25 years.
• 83 percent believe impacts will be catastrophic within 50 years.
• Roughly 90 percent support restricting development in flood-prone areas.
• 81 percent would relocate from high-risk areas if offered fair compensation.
• Only 45 percent are willing to pay higher taxes or fees for neighborhood-level protection.

Widespread public agreement

Public belief that sea level rise is occurring is widespread in Hawaiʻi. Statewide, 89 percent of residents say that sea level rise is happening (Figure 1). This view is shared at similarly high levels across all counties, ranging from 88 percent in Honolulu and Kauaʻi to 92 percent in Maui. In other words, belief in sea level rise is not confined to particular islands or communities but is broadly distributed across the state.

What makes this especially notable is how little this belief varies across political lines. Ninety-seven percent of Democrats say sea level rise is happening, but so do 90 percent of Independents and 80 percent of Republicans. Large majorities of both liberals and conservatives express the same view.

Residents are somewhat less unified on the causes of sea level rise, but disagreement remains limited. About two-thirds attribute SLR to a combination of human activity and natural processes, and another fifth see it as mainly human-caused. Only a small minority attribute it solely to natural processes.

From a policy perspective, this matters. Broad agreement that the problem exists lowers the political costs of acknowledging risk and creates space for long-term planning that would be far more difficult in a polarized environment.

Sea level rise as a present threat

Hawaiʻi residents also view the impacts of sea level rise as imminent.

As Figure 2 shows, nearly half say SLR is already affecting people in the state. Another 19 percent expect impacts to begin within the next ten years. In total, more than four in five residents anticipate local impacts within the next 25 years.

Expectations about personal exposure are similarly high:

• 20 percent say they or their family have already been affected through flooding, higher insurance costs, or property damage.
• 32 percent expect to be affected within ten years.
• 20 percent expect impacts within 25 years.

Concern about long-term severity is widespread. Eighty-three percent agree that sea level rise will have catastrophic consequences for Hawaiʻi within the next 50 years.

When asked about specific outcomes if no action is taken, large majorities expect coastal erosion and beach loss, frequent flooding, damage to coastal property and infrastructure, disruption to tourism areas, losses to natural resources and cultural sites, and impacts on agriculture and public health.

For many households, these risks are already financial as well as physical. Thirty-nine percent report increased costs related to sea level rise or coastal flooding, including housing expenses, insurance premiums, repairs, or business disruptions.

In short, sea level rise is not viewed as an abstract future problem. It is widely understood as a present and near-term challenge to communities, livelihoods, and the state’s economic base.

Strong support for acting—and for changing how Hawaiʻi builds

Given these perceptions, it is not surprising that residents want the government to respond. Nearly 90 percent say state leaders should act immediately to prepare for sea level rise, with more than half expressing this view strongly.

Support is especially high for policies that reduce long-term exposure to coastal hazards:

• about 90 percent support restricting new development in flood-prone areas;
• more than 80 percent favor prioritizing inland development over continued coastal expansion;
• roughly 80 percent support using public funds to acquire coastal land for conservation and restoration.

Residents also back an active government role in helping property owners manage rising risk. Large majorities support expanding eligibility for a state-funded flood insurance program, offering tax incentives or financial assistance to elevate or flood-proof buildings, and providing public funding to help owners relocate from flood-prone areas.

As Figure 3 shows, 81 percent say they would be willing to move away from areas identified as vulnerable to sea level rise if offered fair compensation.

This combination of preferences is unusual. In many coastal regions, public opinion strongly favors protection over retreat, even where long-term risks are severe. In Hawaiʻi, residents appear open to a mixed strategy that includes both helping people remain in place where feasible and supporting relocation where risks become unmanageable.

Views are more divided on shoreline armoring. A narrow majority (54 percent) believe private property owners should be allowed to build seawalls even if doing so harms public resources. Support is much stronger, however, for seawalls that protect public infrastructure such as roads, utilities, and harbors.

Overall, the survey points to a public that is receptive to significant changes in land-use planning and coastal management—an essential condition for effective long-term adaptation.

The central constraint: who pays?

While support for adaptation is widespread, there is no clear consensus on how it should be financed.

When asked whether they would be willing to pay higher taxes or fees to fund neighborhood-level protection from sea level rise, a majority of residents say no. Statewide, 55 percent are unwilling to pay more, while 45 percent say they would (Figure 4).

This gap between strong support for adaptation policies and reluctance to bear direct financial costs highlights the core governance challenge facing Hawaiʻi.

Many of the strategies residents endorse—relocating households, purchasing coastal land, reinforcing infrastructure, redesigning drainage systems, and maintaining protective ecosystems—require large and sustained public investment. While the survey did not test support for specific financing options, it does suggest limited public willingness to accept higher taxes or fees. Without credible, durable funding mechanisms, adaptation risks becoming a cycle of planning exercises and short-term projects rather than a coordinated long-term strategy.

Implications for policymakers

The survey results place Hawaiʻi in a distinctive position.

Unlike many states, policymakers do not face widespread skepticism or ideological resistance to acknowledging sea level rise. Public agreement on the reality and seriousness of the threat is broad, stable, and cross-partisan. Residents also support many of the most powerful policy tools available, including restrictions on coastal development and public assistance for relocation.

This creates a valuable window of opportunity.

At the same time, the financing problem looms large. Public reluctance to accept higher taxes or fees means that the hardest political work lies not in persuasion, but in designing cost-sharing arrangements that are seen as fair, credible, and effective.

That may require targeted state funding mechanisms, greater reliance on federal infrastructure and disaster-mitigation programs, clear prioritization of which areas can realistically be protected long term, and transparent communication about tradeoffs, limits, and timelines.

Sea level rise is a structural challenge, not a temporary shock, and it demands institutions and funding streams that reflect that reality.

Hawaiʻi does not lack public awareness or concern. What remains unresolved is how the costs of adaptation will be shared across communities, taxpayers, property owners, and future generations. How that question is answered will likely determine whether today’s strong public consensus translates into sustained, effective action—or remains a shared recognition of risk without the tools and funding needed to meet it.

This summary blog was originally published by the Economic Research Organization of the University of Hawaiʻi (UHERO) on Feb 16, 2026.

The full report is available on the UHERO website at: https://uhero.hawaii.edu/public-views-on-sea-level-rise-in-hawaiʻi-results-from-a-statewide-survey/