Climate change is already having negative impacts in the RMI, include changing sea levels, extreme events like cyclones and typhoons, heat waves, drought, and ocean acidification. Meanwhile, public health is also affected by climate change, in ways that may directly  or indirectly influence people’s migration decisions. In this context, this research supported by NOAA’s International Research and Applications Project explored the nexus of climate change, health, and migration in the RMI and provides a better understanding of these relationships to inform research and policy agendas that build resilience and adaptive capacity.

To evaluate whether climate and health-related factors were associated with migration decisions in the RMI and, then, to determine if there were differences between the climate impacts and vulnerabilities faced by people in the RMI, we conducted a two-part analysis of household survey data collected in the RMI in 2017 as part of the Pacific RISA Climate and Migration Project.

We found that the 199 households surveyed had experienced very high levels of climate stressors and impacts, especially related to drought, heat waves, flooding, and king tide events, and the severity of these impacts has been increasing with time. Over 50% of respondents said they or a member of their household would or might migrate in the coming decade, and seeking healthcare was a top driver of both past and potential future migrations. We also found that these experiences and expectations to migrate were not homogenous across the surveyed population, and particularly, factors related to wealth, social status, agency, and vulnerability were strong differentiators between respondents that were grouped according to the climate and health impacts they experienced.

The report concludes with three main recommendations for policymakers in the RMI, as well as receiving locations for migrants from the RMI. First, migration will likely remain common within the RMI and abroad, and steps should be taken to enhance opportunities for both migration and remaining in-place so that people can freely choose without feeling that either option is a foregone conclusion. Second, policy interventions should focus on vulnerable members of the population, including the elderly, lower income groups, and outer island residents. Critical infrastructure projects like ensuring community access to drinking water, and comparatively small interventions like installing cooling centers for heatwave events, could help alleviate stressors that may be driving out-migration. Lastly, we argue that enhancing opportunities for residents to achieve what may now be seen as achievable only through migration—through expanded education, healthcare, and livelihood prospects—would provide greater decision-making agency, as well as the potential for return migration.

Download the full report today to learn more.

Featured image: 2019 Presidents’ Day canoe race in Majuro, RMI. Two men in a traditional Marshallese canoe pass behind a large fishing vessel. This juxtaposition captures Marshallese resilience in maintaining their culture and homeland in the face of prevalent threats to both.

All images by David Krzesni.

Related publications

Publication in AsiaPacific Issues on climate change, health, and migration in the Pacific, with examples from the RMI

Case study report and companion publication in the journal Climatic Change on Marshallese migration and the role of climate change and ecosystem services

Policy briefing on climate-induced migration and the Compact of Free Association: limitations and opportunities

Fact sheet on Marshallese perspectives about migration in the context of climate change

The Pacific Islands Climate Storybook containing “climate stories” outputs from climate services dialogs conducted by NOAA and the US Agency for International Development (USAID)

In American Sāmoa, for example, lessons learned from a devastating drought considerably lessened the impacts of a later, even more severe drought. Constant monitoring of regional climate information and a public prepared to mitigate the risks made a striking difference. Because of early warnings, Manus residents in Papua New Guinea were ready to move uphill when an extremely rare ocean swell flooded their island. In Vanuatu, a guidebook and innovative animation are translating science from climate early warning systems into useable strategies for farmers and others especially vulnerable to climate variability. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the health sector benefits from advance drought warnings to prevent vector- and water-borne disease outbreaks, such as the historic dengue fever outbreak in 2019. These stories and more can be found in the new Pacific Islands Climate Storybook.

The Storybook consists of two parts: the first, details an extensive Climate Services Dialog process, with draft agendas, worksheets, and templates for users who wish to hold their own dialog workshop. The Dialogs are designed to enhance scientific and technical capacity by joining climate service providers and users to build regional networks, package and disseminate climate-related information, develop new products and services, and advance training and capacity-building. The first part of the Storybook incorporates technical material, process guides, and activities that were used to conduct the Dialogs and build Climate Stories, which make up the second part. The Climate Stories are a collection of local case studies about climate change and variability-related issues, actions, and key messages obtained from the dialogs in narrative form. This approach conveys information in a way that is easy for decision-makers and stakeholders to understand and apply.

Taken together, the updated Pacific Islands Climate Storybook conveys an approach that is easy for decision-makers to understand and apply, and can serve as a model for governments and other organizations that seek to engage communities in adapting to a changing climate. With support provided through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Pacific RISA, the project was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) working closely with the Pacific Island Meteorological Services and numerous other partner organizations across the Pacific and beyond.

Featured image credit: Drought on Ailuk Atoll (Republic of the Marshall Islands). UN Development Programme.

In the weeks prior to the Climate Change and Health Dialog, confirmed cases of dengue fever in RMI rose from around 60 new cases a week to more than 120 a week, with an estimated 8,000 of the country’s 53,000 citizens infected (Figure 1). Persistent dry, warm weather punctuated by short periods of intense rain have exacerbated the problem since the Christmas holiday season. This record-breaking epidemic has occurred in tandem with other, smaller outbreaks related to a lack of clean water: typhoid fever, diarrheal disease, and conjunctivitis.

Around 100 participants attended the Opening Ceremony of the Dialog (Figure 2), including His Excellency, RMI President David Kabua, former President Hilda Heine, the Honorable Ministers of Health and the Environment, the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Health, Senators and Mayors representing many of the islands and atolls, the World Health Organization Liaison for Micronesia, and high school and college students from Majuro and Ebeye.

Speaking to all those gathered, Secretary of Health Jack Niedenthal explained, “The reason why climate change impacts the RMI and other nations of Micronesia so severely is that we have one of the highest rates of diabetes, tuberculosis in the world, so our health system is already overtaxed.”

The dialog process first asked participants to break into small groups and describe health outbreaks in the form of a timeline, then link them with climate and weather events that occurred at similar times, such as king tides, drought, and heat waves. Matthew Widlansky from the University of Hawaiʻi Sea Level Center and Reginald White from the National Weather Service Majuro office then described existing products and tools for the RMI region that have good predictive capacity for these key events.

On the second day of the workshop, small groups focused on identifying the types of products that would aid health officials in assessing early warning for the health impacts of climate variability and change, particularly vector-borne and waterborne diseases. The workshop concluded with a set of next steps for generating an early warning system for the health sector using the relevant forecast products in tandem with NOAA, the University of Hawaiʻi, and the National Weather Service Majuro office.

Pacific RISA research assistant Duncan McIntosh recently attended the “Pacific Islands Climate Services Dialog: Preserving Freshwater Resources and Minimizing the Impacts of Drought” workshop which was held 23 to 25 April, 2014 in Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), is conducting a series of activities to enhance scientific and technical capacity to support climate change adaptation in the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS).  These activities include the development and delivery of new or enhanced products and services that focus on climate issues critical to the region and respond to unique user needs.

To support RMI decision makers who are preparing for and responding to climate conditions that affect fresh water resources, a team of researchers is gathering relevant resources that may provide early warning and descriptions of potential impacts to the RMI area in one place – a web-based “dashboard” with real-time updating. This effort is a collaboration between Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS), Pacific RISA, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), with support from USGS, University of Guam, Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), and NOAA.  Product development will focus on the collection and aggregation of information from disparate sources and the tailoring and transformation of that information so that it is specific to sector and locale, and targeted to the nature and timing of decisions. Pacific RISA supported the development of the drought dashboard prior to the workshop by conducting interviews with high-level decision makers in RMI who manage freshwater and community during drought, and compiling the results into a report identifying key characteristics of the stakeholders, their climate-sensitive decisions and information needs, and the broader contextual factors that influenced drought management decisions.  A semi-structured interview protocol guided discussions with interviewees to identify their main responsibilities and duties, specify key decisions affected by climate variables, determine current understanding of climate impacts and use of climate information, and identify climate information needs for managing drought and fresh water resources.  At the workshop, key findings of the Pacific RISA report were presented to the plenary and utilized as a spring board to initiate discussion of climate stories from the local decision-makers’ perspectives.

At the workshop in Majuro, local knowledge was combined with specialist technical advice to identify accurate, timely and regionally-relevant content that helps to preserve fresh water resources and minimize the impacts of drought.  As a result of the dialogue, the user community is better informed about the current state of knowledge of climate variability and its impacts, and the provider community is better informed about what problems and questions are most relevant and better able to match products and services to user requirements.  Click here to view the workshop proceedings.

On Tuesday, waves inundated the southern part of Majuro, the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), flooding homes and causing extensive damage to property. The waves reached two and a half meters high, according to Majuro Weather Service meteorologist Reggie White, who serves on Pacific RISA’s Advisory Committee. The flooding caused the Majuro airport to close for the day, after the runway seawall crumbled under the weight of the waves, and a United Airlines flight bound for Majuro was redirected. High swells could persist for several days, so residents are doing what they can to prepare for further inundation possible through Thursday.

Many parts of Majuro atoll are less than one meter above sea level and are therefore vulnerable to flooding during very high tides. This week’s events can be attributed to local weather (a storm produced high ocean swells), coinciding with an unusually high tide (a result of the recent supermoon); yet, such events are very likely to increase in frequency and severity as sea-level continues to rise.  Whether or not future storm patterns change over the next century, the impact that rising average water levels will have on such extreme events is well recognized.  A study focusing on Australian sea-level stations estimated that an increase of 10 cm (about 4 inches) in average water level corresponds to a threefold increase in the frequency of extreme events on average (Hunter, 2012).  Thus, an increase of 20 cm (about 8 inches) will mean that what is currently a 100-year inundation event will become a 10-year event on average. The picture is clear—cities and villages on low-lying islands such as the Marshalls will be at heightened risk for severe flooding in the future.

Majuro residents will tell you that the increasing frequency of these situations and the effects of sea-level rise are already visible. In places where the coastline is eroding, trees and plants are removed as a result, and the waves have an easier time coming up. Coastal erosion is a natural long-term, dynamic process; however, sea-level rise is increasing the rate of erosion in many places, and loss of land at the shoreline is evident. As infrastructure becomes threatened, more and more structures to protect land from the ocean (seawalls, rubble mounds, etc.) are being built on Majuro, and seawalls now cover nearly the entire coastline of Majuro city and the eastern part of the atoll. While seawalls can protect against more minor high tide events, they may be overtopped by waves in more extreme events, as they were on Tuesday.  Seawalls, in fact, can accelerate erosion of nearby beaches by disturbing natural coastal processes that transport beach sediment along the shoreline and by increasing the force of waves due to wave reflection off the seawall.  Thus, there are obvious limits to this kind of protective structure as a long-term solution.

As low-lying islands face a wide range of impacts due to increased water levels and the possibility of more frequent extreme inundation events, places like RMI will require assistance from other governments and the international community in order to appropriately address the near-term and long-term threats.  The U.S. Congress is currently debating an immigration reform bill, and Senator Brian Schatz of the State of Hawai‘i has proposed an amendment that would give a legal status to people displaced by climate change.  The amendment would allow the U.S. government to designate individuals or groups of individuals displaced permanently by climate change as stateless persons, identifying climate change, like war, as a potential major cause of homelessness in the world.  This move both signifies the severity of the problem that island countries are facing, and recognizes that now is the time for Pacific Islands together with other governments to put in place measures to prepare for a possibly not-so-distant future when such legal structures, as well as broader adaptation policies, will be needed.

References

Huang, T. and Rapp, H. (2010). Coastal Erosion on Majuro Atoll : Marshall Islands with Special Regard to Sea-Level Rise (Master thesis). Available from Division of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Building and Environmental Technology, Lund University, http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/o.o.i.s?id=24965&postid=1670491

Hunter, J. (2012). A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise. Climate Change, 113(2), 239-252. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1

Johnson, G. (2013, June 26). Marshalls capital inundated by high tide. Marianas Variety, Regional News, Palau/Pacific News. Retrieved from http://www.mvariety.com/index.php/regional-news/palaupacific-news/56955-marshalls-capital-inundated-by-high-tide

Keener, V.W., Marra, J.J., Finucane, M.L., Spooner, D., & Smith, M.H. (Eds.). (2012).  Climate Change and Pacific Islands:  Indicators and Impacts.  Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment.  (Chapter  3: Sea Level and Coastal Inundation on Pacific Islands.) Washington, DC: Island Press. Available from www.PacificRISA.org/projects/PIRCA.

Leber, R. (2013, June 20). Amendment Would Give Legal Status To People Displaced By Climate Change. Message posted to http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/06/20/2187831/climate-refugee-immigration-bill/?mobile=nc

Pope, T. (2013, June 25). Marshall Islands bracing for more destructive seas. Australia Network News. Retrieved from http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-25/an-marshall-islands-braced-for-more-flooding/4779164

A persistent drought in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) has reached a severe level, affecting 8,000 to 10,000 people of the northern atolls. There has been little rainfall in the northern Marshall Islands this year, and well water is turning brackish, making it unsafe to drink or use for crop irrigation. With no alternative source of fresh water, the Marshallese Government has declared the drought a national disaster. In addition to the drinking water shortage, island communities are facing the threat of communicable disease as well as food shortage, as many subsistence food gardens have suffered from the drought.

Clint Simpson of the National Weather Service Office in Guam told Radio New Zealand that a high pressure system is lingering over the Central Pacific, causing the dry weather conditions. Typically, dry spells are offset by Trade Wind showers, but not this time. Forecasters warn that the drought is likely to get much worse in the weeks to come, as no rain is forecast for the near future. In fact, the drought may last through July, or possibly longer.

The Marshall Islands’ Foreign Minister, Phillip Muller, reports that the government conducted an assessment of the impacts on communities and says that the situation is “quite dire.” The United States government is making their own assessment, and if the need is found to exceed one million dollars, the US President will allow for additional aid to the country.  The US has already delivered solar-powered reverse osmosis equipment that can supply a small amount of water (about 300 gallons daily), but it will not be enough for island populations. The Australian government has also provided US$100,000 in emergency desalinization units. The United Nations recently sent an emergency grant and an assessment team to the RMI. Jens Laerke, a spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said, “The lack of clean drinking water is of acute humanitarian concern, and children are particularly vulnerable.”

While the water shortage is worsening for families in the northern islands, atolls south of the capital of Majuro have received enough rain to be spared dangerous water shortages. The large municipal reservoir at the Majuro Airport held 20 million gallons as of mid-April, which is a little over half of capacity.

The latest issue of the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center’s quarterly newsletter, released in early May, reports that rainfall should slowly build back to normal across the RMI, starting with Majuro in May, Kwajalein by June, and into the drought-stricken northern islands by July. Download the full newsletter, with climate conditions and outlooks for each Pacific Island group, here.

References

Australia To Assist RMI Amidst Severe Drought Conditions.  Radio Australia. 6 May 2013. Available from http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2013/May/05-07-10.htm.

The Marshalls Islands has declared a state of disaster in the island nation’s North due to the prolonged drought. Radio Australia. 10 May 2013. Available from http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/pacific/radio/program/pacific-beat/marshall-islands-declares-national-drought-disaster/1129120.

Marshall Islands drought to get much worse – forecaster.  Radio New Zealand, International.  7 May 2013. Available from http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=75859.

UN disaster assessment team arrives in drought-affected Marshall Islands. UN News Centre. 10 May 2013. Available from http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44871&Cr=drought&Cr1=#.UY2cM0rihYU.

The Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center. Pacific ENSO Update,  2nd Quarter, 2013 Vol. 19, No. 2.,  issued May 2, 2013. Available from http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/peu/2013_2nd/PEU_v19_n2.pdf.

Cover photo:  Namorik Atoll, in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Courtesy of Darren Nakata.