There is currently a strong El Niño event, for which there are significant impacts around Hawaii and the Pacific Islands, including extended drought conditions, enhanced risk of damaging tropical cyclones, increased risk of coral bleaching, and possible spread of vector borne disease and illness.

The evolution and duration, strength and impacts of individual El Niño events can vary, in some cases greatly. This makes constant monitoring and awareness extremely important for decision makers across multiple sectors. Impacts also vary by island, and these seven fact sheets outline different physical impacts on different sectors and projected trends in relevant climate variables for Hawaii, American Sāmoa, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, the eastern and western Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Palau, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the patterns of sea level pressure, lower- and upper-level winds, and tropical rainfall across the Pacific basin. This irregular oscillation between warm and cool patterns, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the Pacific basin.

The following El Niño fact sheetsfor Hawaii and the Pacific Islands were created by the NOAA Hawaii and Pacific Islands ENSO Tiger Team, and are immediately available for download and distribution to policy makers, natural resource managers, community members, and interested stakeholders. For more information, please contact the Pacific Region Climate Officer of the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (peac@noaa.gov).

2015 El Niño and Pacific Islands Fact Sheets

Cover image: Sea surface temperature anomaly on 11/12/2015, visualization from http://earth.nullschool.net/ by Cameron Beccario, Real Time Global SST from MMAB / EMC / NCEP

Workshop participants included community freshwater managers and planners, decision makers, and climate experts from American Samoa, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, and Hawaii. They represented local utilities American Samoa Power Authority (ASPA), the American Samoa Environmental Protection Agency (ASEPA), the National Weather Service, Meteorological Service experts, and local and regional resource and environment agencies (SPREP, etc). Using a climate scenario dialog framework, participants conducted interactive climate stories that contributed to the exploration of future best practices to preserve freshwater resources and minimize the impacts of drought, with an emphasis on the upcoming ENSO event. A key point raised was the need for improvement in inter-agency cooperation and communication to raise awareness of the state of knowledge of climate science, impacts, and adaptation and available climate and weather service products and services to support climate adaptation planning, disaster risk management, and “win-win” strategies for freshwater management.

At the workshop, Dr. Brewington presented the initial results of a study led by Pacific RISA Project Specialist Richard Wallsgrove on the Climate Adaptivity of Freshwater Regulations in American Samoa. The presentation evaluated the effectiveness of American Samoa’s adaptive policies and planning tools next to the criteria of being forward-looking, adaptive, integrated, and iterative. It also suggested 9 opportunities in which adaptive capacity could be improved in American Samoa. Also during the workshop, Chris Schuler, University of Hawaii graduate student, described the status of a groundwater model for the island of Tutuila being developed at the UH Water Resources Research Center (WRRC). The potential applications of the groundwater model include sustainable yield estimates, well-siting and future development, contamination potential, and climate change adaptation. Other presentations by the Fiji and Samoa Meteorological Services, SPREP, NWS, and ASPA contributed greatly to the enrichment of the climate scenario dialog.

Through the collaborative efforts of the workshop participants, local knowledge was combined with specialist technical advice to identify accurate, timely and regionally-relevant content that helps to preserve fresh water resources and minimize the impacts of drought. As a result of the dialogue, the user community is better informed about the current state of knowledge of climate variability and its impacts, and the provider community is better informed about what problems and questions are most relevant and better able to match products and services to user requirements. Click here for more information on the Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS) Drought Dashboard.

Pacific RISA research assistant Duncan McIntosh recently attended the “Pacific Islands Climate Services Dialog: Preserving Freshwater Resources and Minimizing the Impacts of Drought” workshop which was held 23 to 25 April, 2014 in Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), is conducting a series of activities to enhance scientific and technical capacity to support climate change adaptation in the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS).  These activities include the development and delivery of new or enhanced products and services that focus on climate issues critical to the region and respond to unique user needs.

To support RMI decision makers who are preparing for and responding to climate conditions that affect fresh water resources, a team of researchers is gathering relevant resources that may provide early warning and descriptions of potential impacts to the RMI area in one place – a web-based “dashboard” with real-time updating. This effort is a collaboration between Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS), Pacific RISA, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), with support from USGS, University of Guam, Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), and NOAA.  Product development will focus on the collection and aggregation of information from disparate sources and the tailoring and transformation of that information so that it is specific to sector and locale, and targeted to the nature and timing of decisions. Pacific RISA supported the development of the drought dashboard prior to the workshop by conducting interviews with high-level decision makers in RMI who manage freshwater and community during drought, and compiling the results into a report identifying key characteristics of the stakeholders, their climate-sensitive decisions and information needs, and the broader contextual factors that influenced drought management decisions.  A semi-structured interview protocol guided discussions with interviewees to identify their main responsibilities and duties, specify key decisions affected by climate variables, determine current understanding of climate impacts and use of climate information, and identify climate information needs for managing drought and fresh water resources.  At the workshop, key findings of the Pacific RISA report were presented to the plenary and utilized as a spring board to initiate discussion of climate stories from the local decision-makers’ perspectives.

At the workshop in Majuro, local knowledge was combined with specialist technical advice to identify accurate, timely and regionally-relevant content that helps to preserve fresh water resources and minimize the impacts of drought.  As a result of the dialogue, the user community is better informed about the current state of knowledge of climate variability and its impacts, and the provider community is better informed about what problems and questions are most relevant and better able to match products and services to user requirements.  Click here to view the workshop proceedings.

A persistent drought in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) has reached a severe level, affecting 8,000 to 10,000 people of the northern atolls. There has been little rainfall in the northern Marshall Islands this year, and well water is turning brackish, making it unsafe to drink or use for crop irrigation. With no alternative source of fresh water, the Marshallese Government has declared the drought a national disaster. In addition to the drinking water shortage, island communities are facing the threat of communicable disease as well as food shortage, as many subsistence food gardens have suffered from the drought.

Clint Simpson of the National Weather Service Office in Guam told Radio New Zealand that a high pressure system is lingering over the Central Pacific, causing the dry weather conditions. Typically, dry spells are offset by Trade Wind showers, but not this time. Forecasters warn that the drought is likely to get much worse in the weeks to come, as no rain is forecast for the near future. In fact, the drought may last through July, or possibly longer.

The Marshall Islands’ Foreign Minister, Phillip Muller, reports that the government conducted an assessment of the impacts on communities and says that the situation is “quite dire.” The United States government is making their own assessment, and if the need is found to exceed one million dollars, the US President will allow for additional aid to the country.  The US has already delivered solar-powered reverse osmosis equipment that can supply a small amount of water (about 300 gallons daily), but it will not be enough for island populations. The Australian government has also provided US$100,000 in emergency desalinization units. The United Nations recently sent an emergency grant and an assessment team to the RMI. Jens Laerke, a spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said, “The lack of clean drinking water is of acute humanitarian concern, and children are particularly vulnerable.”

While the water shortage is worsening for families in the northern islands, atolls south of the capital of Majuro have received enough rain to be spared dangerous water shortages. The large municipal reservoir at the Majuro Airport held 20 million gallons as of mid-April, which is a little over half of capacity.

The latest issue of the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center’s quarterly newsletter, released in early May, reports that rainfall should slowly build back to normal across the RMI, starting with Majuro in May, Kwajalein by June, and into the drought-stricken northern islands by July. Download the full newsletter, with climate conditions and outlooks for each Pacific Island group, here.

References

Australia To Assist RMI Amidst Severe Drought Conditions.  Radio Australia. 6 May 2013. Available from http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2013/May/05-07-10.htm.

The Marshalls Islands has declared a state of disaster in the island nation’s North due to the prolonged drought. Radio Australia. 10 May 2013. Available from http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/pacific/radio/program/pacific-beat/marshall-islands-declares-national-drought-disaster/1129120.

Marshall Islands drought to get much worse – forecaster.  Radio New Zealand, International.  7 May 2013. Available from http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=75859.

UN disaster assessment team arrives in drought-affected Marshall Islands. UN News Centre. 10 May 2013. Available from http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44871&Cr=drought&Cr1=#.UY2cM0rihYU.

The Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center. Pacific ENSO Update,  2nd Quarter, 2013 Vol. 19, No. 2.,  issued May 2, 2013. Available from http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/peu/2013_2nd/PEU_v19_n2.pdf.

Cover photo:  Namorik Atoll, in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Courtesy of Darren Nakata.