Adapted from the East-West Center Press Release 

Among the findings of the Fifth US National Climate Assessment, released by the White House, are that climate change in Hawaiʻi and the Pacific Islands worsens inequities and threatens unique island ecosystems, along with cultural resources, human health, livelihoods, the built environment, and access to clean water and healthy food. The assessment concludes that adaptation strategies incorporating local and Indigenous knowledge can improve the resilience of Pacific Island communities, and that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change impacts are now underway in every US region, including the Pacific Islands.

The report’s chapter on Hawaiʻi and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands was written by 16 authors, including Pacific RISA’s Abby Frazier, Victoria Keener, Zena Grecni, Kirsten Oleson, and Chris Shuler. The chapter has 41 technical contributors and is backed by nearly 500 citations from published literature.

“Climate change continues to threaten things we care about,” said Frazier, now an assistant professor at Clark University and the Hawai‘i-Pacific chapter’s lead author. “As the devastating hurricane-fueled wildfires on Maui and Typhoon Mawar in Guam made clear, when communities are already hurting from stressors like COVID-19, extreme weather can multiply harms. The sooner we scale up global action to curb threats from climate change, the better. Fortunately, cutting emissions or preparing for new extremes also creates immediate local benefits—improved health, a stronger economy, and more resilient communities.”

The chapter’s key takeaways for the region include:

• Climate change impairs access to healthy food and water. Increasing temperatures, altered rainfall, flooding, pollution, and fisheries decline will further affect food and water availability.
• Climate change undermines human health. Climate shocks and stressors compromise healthcare and worsen long-standing social and economic inequities that contribute to illness, but community strengths and adaptation measures can boost resilience.
• Rising sea levels harm infrastructure and islands’ economies. Sea level rise intensifies loss of territory and disrupts livelihoods, but governments and communities are innovating through renewable energy, green infrastructure, and sustainable economic growth.
• Responses help to safeguard tropical ecosystems and biodiversity. Increased fire risk, severe droughts, and ocean changes have broad negative impacts on native plants and wildlife, and ocean ecosystems. Effective adaptation strategies include ecosystem protection and restoration, invasive species measures, and fire prevention.
• Indigenous Peoples and their knowledge systems are central to the resilience of island communities amidst the changing climate.

New since the Fourth National Climate Assessment, published in 2018, is the chapter’s inclusion of a key message on human health and its emphasis on food security, integration of Indigenous knowledge, and recognition of data inequities for the Pacific Islands and US Caribbean.

About the Fifth National Climate Assessment

Mandated in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, the National Climate Assessment provides authoritative scientific information about climate change risks, impacts, and responses in the US. The assessment reflects the scientific consensus and is widely used for decision-making but does not include policy recommendations nor advocate for any specific policy.

The Fifth National Climate Assessment includes 32 chapters on physical science, national-level sectors (such as water, energy, agriculture, ecosystems, transportation, health, infrastructure, etc.), regional impacts in the US, and responses. The assessment was written by a diverse team of more than 500 authors and more than 250 technical contributors from every state. The report has undergone multiple rounds of review, including three opportunities for public comment, extensive agency review, and an external review by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The Hawai‘i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands chapter has 16 authors and 41 technical contributors and is backed by nearly 500 citations from published literature.

Climate change is already having negative impacts in the RMI, include changing sea levels, extreme events like cyclones and typhoons, heat waves, drought, and ocean acidification. Meanwhile, public health is also affected by climate change, in ways that may directly  or indirectly influence people’s migration decisions. In this context, this research supported by NOAA’s International Research and Applications Project explored the nexus of climate change, health, and migration in the RMI and provides a better understanding of these relationships to inform research and policy agendas that build resilience and adaptive capacity.

To evaluate whether climate and health-related factors were associated with migration decisions in the RMI and, then, to determine if there were differences between the climate impacts and vulnerabilities faced by people in the RMI, we conducted a two-part analysis of household survey data collected in the RMI in 2017 as part of the Pacific RISA Climate and Migration Project.

We found that the 199 households surveyed had experienced very high levels of climate stressors and impacts, especially related to drought, heat waves, flooding, and king tide events, and the severity of these impacts has been increasing with time. Over 50% of respondents said they or a member of their household would or might migrate in the coming decade, and seeking healthcare was a top driver of both past and potential future migrations. We also found that these experiences and expectations to migrate were not homogenous across the surveyed population, and particularly, factors related to wealth, social status, agency, and vulnerability were strong differentiators between respondents that were grouped according to the climate and health impacts they experienced.

The report concludes with three main recommendations for policymakers in the RMI, as well as receiving locations for migrants from the RMI. First, migration will likely remain common within the RMI and abroad, and steps should be taken to enhance opportunities for both migration and remaining in-place so that people can freely choose without feeling that either option is a foregone conclusion. Second, policy interventions should focus on vulnerable members of the population, including the elderly, lower income groups, and outer island residents. Critical infrastructure projects like ensuring community access to drinking water, and comparatively small interventions like installing cooling centers for heatwave events, could help alleviate stressors that may be driving out-migration. Lastly, we argue that enhancing opportunities for residents to achieve what may now be seen as achievable only through migration—through expanded education, healthcare, and livelihood prospects—would provide greater decision-making agency, as well as the potential for return migration.

Download the full report today to learn more.

Featured image: 2019 Presidents’ Day canoe race in Majuro, RMI. Two men in a traditional Marshallese canoe pass behind a large fishing vessel. This juxtaposition captures Marshallese resilience in maintaining their culture and homeland in the face of prevalent threats to both.

All images by David Krzesni.

Related publications

Publication in AsiaPacific Issues on climate change, health, and migration in the Pacific, with examples from the RMI

Case study report and companion publication in the journal Climatic Change on Marshallese migration and the role of climate change and ecosystem services

Policy briefing on climate-induced migration and the Compact of Free Association: limitations and opportunities

Fact sheet on Marshallese perspectives about migration in the context of climate change

The Pacific Islands Climate Storybook containing “climate stories” outputs from climate services dialogs conducted by NOAA and the US Agency for International Development (USAID)