Risk Assessment & Resilience
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The phrase, “climate is what you expect, weather is what you get,” describes the way that people understand climate [1]. The impacts from extreme events, such as periods of excessive heat or climate-related hazards, create vivid experiences that inform perceptions of risk [2, 3]. Adapted from the fields of disaster and environmental management, climate risk assessment focuses on understanding the extent to which people, their livelihoods, their environments, and governments may be impacted from climate variability and change [2, 4, 5]. Comprehensive risk analyses improve planning and decision making to mitigate hazards, develop adaptive capacity, and strengthen resilience of communities and governments in coping with changes in climate.
Extreme Events and Risk Reduction Measures
The Pacific Islands are susceptible to a wide range of climate-related hazards and associated extreme events, including floods, droughts, wildfires, sea level variation, high waves, tropical cyclones, coastal inundation, and erosion. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent agencies, the number of people in Oceania affected by weather-related disasters has increased from 1.2 million to 18 million in the past thirty years with droughts, extreme temperature events and tropical cyclones producing the most significant impacts [6].
For all of the islands, the 1997-1998 ENSO event marked the most significant series of extreme events in memory with hazards ranging from typhoons, drought, wildfires, flooding, sea level variation, and erosion. Damage from Category 5 Typhoon Paka, which impacted Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Marshall Islands, is estimated at $779 million (2008 USD) [7,8, 9, 10, 12]. The ENSO event in 2002 was not as severe, but Guam and the Federated States of Micronesia experienced a severe typhoon that resulted in landslides, flooding, and loss of life in Chuuk [13]. Later in the same year, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands experienced Super Typhoon Pongsona that resulted in a fire in the tank yard in Apra Harbor, the main port that provides access to most of the goods brought into Guam and Micronesia, becoming one of the most costly typhoons in the Pacific at about $870 million (2008 USD) [11,12,13].
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires states and territories to develop hazard mitigation plans based on conducting risk and vulnerability assessments. The methods rely on: 1) assessing historical frequencies and impacts of each hazard and mapping risks; 2) identifying critical facilities, infrastructure, populations, and other assets at risk from each hazard; 3) determining the extent of sensitivity, exposure, and resources available for recovery from the hazards; and 4) developing mitigation actions that will reduce overall risks. The risk assessments use social characteristics and demographic information to identify root causes of vulnerability, such as gender inequities, eco-justice, and poverty. The State of Hawaii, the Territory of Guam, the Territory of American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands have approved multi-hazard mitigation plans, which enable access to post-disaster recovery and pre-disaster mitigation funds.
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In addition to the multi-hazard risk assessments, post-disaster impact assessments have been conducted. The 1997-1998 ENSO event demonstrated that island geology and geomorphology, location in the Pacific Ocean, development, socioeconomic and cultural factors, and types of policies and response mechanisms influenced the extent and degree of the impacts experienced in 1997-1998. Many of the islands experienced effects of Typhoon Paka, at different magnitudes as it generated east of the Marshall Islands, had a direct hit at its strongest winds when it passed Guam, moving finally through the Northern Mariana Islands. As it passed three hundred miles north of the Federated States of Micronesia, it brought heavy rainfall, which was the last significant rain of 1997 preceding drought. Guam recorded more than 1,600 wildfires during a three month period. Yap and Pohnpei had several wildfires, as well, but the atoll islands did not record fire hazards. (For more information on U.S. Pacific storm and flooding disaster declarations, click here. For more information on U.S. Pacific drought and wildfire disasters, click here. For more information about Hawaii Droughts, visit the Hawaii Drought Monitor.)
Using rapid assessment methods and regional assessment workshops, it was possible to record the impacts and to evaluate the effectiveness of climate forecast information, the delivery of public education and awareness materials, and the responses from governments and resource managers. The information has been used to enhance communication and planning among multiple sectors to minimize the impacts of ENSO events. These workshops and reports include: 1) PEAC 1997-98 Impact Assessment by Hamnett, Anderson, and Guard 2000 [14]; 2) 1999 ENSO Drought Workshop in Nadi, Fiji [16]; 3) Climate and Health Workshop in Samoa, 2000; 4) Climate and Health Workshop in Nadi, Fiji, 2004; and 5) PEAC Review by Eileen Shea 2004 [15].
Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies
Actions to reduce climate-related impacts from hazards and sea level variation form some of the adaptive measures for dealing with climate change. Since climate change will result in multiple types of changes, it is important to assess risks by location. Some lessons from dealing with climate variability can be applied to adaptation strategies, since reports suggest increases in climate extremes, such as extremes in temperature and rainfall [17]. Many Pacific Islands have already witnessed changes in shorelines and water availability. The variation in sea level associated with ENSO events threatens food gardens, resulting in drought and emergency declarations [19]. The factors influencing these changes may be the result of longer term climate change, but may also be the result of increased shoreline development, poor coastal management policies, and population pressures on limited resources. In many cases, improved coastal management practices will enhance the sustainability of island and coastal communities.
Some of the changes from climate may result in severe loss of water availability and declines in food security, which will make these islands uninhabitable for the local populations. To access funding for dealing with climate change, many of the Pacific Island Countries have begun to develop National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) that identify adaption strategies based on existing information [20]. Funding can be targeted for infrastructure enhancements, shoreline improvements, plans to increase food security, or other actions to reduce vulnerability, but access to the funding is contingent on the development of plans. Similarly, the U.S. Pacific Islands have been included in national assessments on climate variability and change to identify needs to increase community resilience in face of changes [4, 5]. For island environments, fresh water has been identified as the most critical element because it impacts all places, people, and economic sectors [4, 5].
Several Pacific regional organizations have implemented projects to improve information about developing adaptation strategies. With funding from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) developed pilot projects through a program called Capacity Building for the development of Adaptation Measures in Pacific Island Countries. The project targeted four Pacific communities to identify adaptation measures and used the experience to develop community guidelines, Community Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment and Action Guideline [21]. The process demonstrates the importance of working with the government through high level policy makers and at the grassroots levels with people experiencing changes firsthand in their communities (sees Taito Nakalevu’s presentation, Climate Variability and Change Workshops, Stakeholder Dialogue).
The World Wildlife Fund South Pacific Programme has implemented a significant community-based climate monitoring project, known as the Climate Witness project. This project provides training to community members who monitor changes in local ecosystems and resources, such as mangroves and corals. It further provides a toolkit for communities to adapt to their local contexts for management [24]. By making use of community members who are most knowledgeable of the resources in their communities, this project provides important baseline information to the WWF and improves the ability of the program to address local needs on the frontlines of climate change.
At the global level and in the Pacific, agencies and organizations have developed a series of adaptation guidelines and assessment tools. These include: 1) USAID’s Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: A Guidance Manual for Development Planning [22]; 2) Surviving climate change in small islands: a guidebook by Emma Tompkins at the Tydall Centre for Climate Change Research [18]; and 3) the Climate Impacts Group in the U.S. Pacific Northwest’s Preparing for Climate Change: A Guide for Local, Regional, and State Governments. Even with the development of these guidelines and assessment tools, there are many uncertainties in planning for climate change. For the islands faced with pressing concerns related to changes they are already witnessing, the development of adaptation strategies is essential for increasing community resilience and, ultimately, for survival.
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