Releasing a weather balloon, Pohnpei. Source: C. Anderson. Staff at the Pohnpei Weather Service Office prepared to release the weather balloon that records data, which fed into the global climate observing system.

The 1997-1998 El Niño event offers a vivid example of what climate means to people in the Pacific Islands.  By providing advanced warnings of rainfall and drought with a focused climate education and outreach program, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC) reduced the impacts of the 1997-1998 El Niño throughout the Pacific Island jurisdictions.   Despite the severity of the drought, the Pacific Island governments and local ENSO task forces used the forecasts from the Pacific ENSO Update and monthly teleconferences to develop strategies for surviving the extreme events, such as providing criteria for individual water catchment tanks, providing options for water conservation measures, and facilitating involvement of policy makers to take action in providing relief assistance [1, 2] (see PEAC 1997-98 Impact Assessment by Hamnett, Anderson, and Guard 2000; PEAC Review by Eileen Shea 2004).

Evolving from the work with PEAC since 1994 and the Pacific Regional Climate Assessment in 2001, Pacific RISA scientists collaborate with Pacific partners to understand the ways in which Pacific Island decision makers make use of ENSO forecasts. Through research and dialogue, the Pacific RISA team is helping to clarify the decision making frameworks and explore the usefulness of forecast products and applications designed to meet stakeholder needs, such as facilitating the discussions in the PEAC review that enabled the development of sea level variation forecasts [2]. During the Climate Variability and Change Workshops, participants identified research needs in forecasts and applications, such as improved hazard mapping, increased capability in understanding fire and drought risks, streamflow monitoring, and better understanding of wave and water levels.  This identification has enabled partners in PEAC and the NOAA Integrated Data for Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center to pursue research and product development to address some of these needs.

In addition to the focus on climate variability, the work of the Pacific RISA has increasingly focused on issues of climate change and adaptation, which have appeared as immediate and pressing concerns for islands.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists describe the likelihood of increases in climate extremes, such as increased rainfall, more frequent drought, and variations in sea level [3] (also see presentations by Eileen Shea, Nicole Colasacco, Chip Guard, Reggie White, Taito Nakalevu, and Cheryl Anderson in Stakeholder Dialogue that review longer term challenges from climate change). 

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Since 1957 MLO has been continuously monitoring and collecting data relating to atmospheric change, and is known especially for their continuous monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.

The sensitivity and exposure of island ecosystems increases their vulnerability for coping with extreme climate events, and demonstrates the need to begin adapting to extremes from water resource planning to relocating villages to protect them from coastal inundation. Building on the knowledge of risks associated with climate extremes, the Pacific RISA has initiated research and planning dialogues for adapting to extremes that may be similar, of greater intensity, or longer in duration than previous experiences (see Stakeholder Dialogue).   With increased climate awareness and improved use of warning and forecast information, communities in the Pacific can begin to plan and develop adaptation strategies.

The following climate-related forecasts are being used for planning and risk reduction in the US Pacific Islands:
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts
Sea Level Variation Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Pacific
Drought: U.S. Drought Monitor, Drought Forecasts, Hawaii Drought Monitor